I pulled up Capital Economics most recent GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK WATCH to get the skinny on the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting this week
And ended up with the impression that Australia doesn't really count :-D
The Cap Eco piece is great ... but the RBA doesn't get much of a mention at all. Scrolling down, down, down (under) .... still scrolling .... Sweden, China, Russia .... errr ....
OK, here we are ... expectations for 2018 (the whole year) ...
- Australia ... no change
Next move says the analysts is Q3 2019, a hike
:-D
RBC, however, have a bit of a preview of this week's RBA. Due Tuesday 6 February 2018 at 0330 GMT (and later in the week, due Friday, the Bank's quarterly Statement):
There are three key developments since the board last met in early December
- Firstly, global activity data continue to highlight momentum, with G7 central banks continuing to shift toward the removal of policy accommodation
- Secondly, domestic employment data and key business surveys have been strong although inflation remains modest
- Thirdly, AUD/USD has appreciated by ~6.5% and ~3.5% on a TWI basis.
On balance, these developments point to upbeat and positive communication from the RBA next week, in line with the global central bank rhetoric, although there may be some caution around the currency.
We expect no substantial changes to the key macro forecasts, which should continue to assume an eventual return to above-trend growth and within target inflation. In itself, however, this is noteworthy given the constant downward revisions to overly optimistic growth forecasts. No change to GDP forecasts would be a positive development.
