Another Super Thursday will roll around tomorrow in the UK with the BoE meeting, minutes, inflation report and even a letter from the Governor!

Let's get the ball rolling with a brief look at some of the bank previews:

Via ... Barclays:

  • Overall we expect the Bank to remain in wait-and-see mode after its November hike and refrain from revising its communication in the absence of relevant events or data since the last inflation report.
  • Emboldened by constructive sentiment and healthy Q4 growth, it might be open to discussing an alternative tightening path.
  • However, we would see that as an unnecessary risk and instead we retain our call for a next hike in November 2018.

Bank of America / Merrill Lynch:

  • Quarterly Inflation Report we expect the BoE to sign up to 3 hikes in 3 years, up from the 2 in 3 previously.
  • should cut their inflation forecasts to 2% from mid-2019, but they will likely raise growth forecasts on global strength
  • The better growth outlook justifies more hikes; lower inflation keeps them from pulling the trigger imminently. To be clear, a rate hike in May or August may not be far off a 50-50 likelihood, in our view, but we don't think the BoE will commit to it now.
  • Low inflation could yet stay their hand. Why would they feel the need to signal a hike in six months? We are miles away from the positon last summer when the BoE felt the market was ignoring data. Now the market is doing the BoE's work for it by pricing in more hikes beyond 2019. Why would Carney rock the boat?

Citi:

  • Dovish tones are unlikely on 8 February in our view
  • New forecasts may show stronger growth and higher inflation rates, although the Bank will likely remain cautious due to Brexit uncertainty
  • The MPC's supply assessment could lead to higher slack estimates (dovish), but also lower potential growth (hawkish)
  • We currently expect a Bank Rate hike by 25bp in Aug-18 and one hike per year until 2020.
  • Hawkish changes to the Bank's supply-side assessment might make us add more hikes after March 2019.
  • What does it mean for the market? - The Inflation Report should be hawkish enough to justify the recent sell-off, but is unlikely to propel it any further. The pricing of a fuller cycle remains unlikely ahead of Brexit. The front-end price action may mirror 2006-07, with the market taking it one hike at a time.