- Labor market is strong, inflation is not falling as rapidly as last year
- With this week's CPI report, it's a good time to remind people the Fed is not data-point dependent
- I need to be fully confident inflation is coming down to 2% before considering a rate cut
- There's a lot of work to do before we can be confident
- There's too much discussion of how many rate cuts, rather than what we are trying to accomplish
The market is pricing in a 68% chance of a cut in July. We will need a turn lower in inflation data if that's going to happen.
