Author: Eamonn Sheridan
44

This is from a HSBC note on the EUR I saw during the week and I though I'd pass it along for some weekend reading

HSBC discussing this in the context of the EUR rally, but it also perhaps useful as a way of thinking about flows and their impacts. See what you think.
--
Has the EUR rallied too far, too fast, and is a reversal now imminent?
To answer this we look at six different elements of FX positioning and sentiment across three different types of investment horizons and styles.

Fast moving - speculative investors:  
  • FX positioning: long EUR positions have increased but this in itself does not mean a pullback is imminent 
  • FX options: relative call-put prices and call strike levels do not yet suggest the market believes in a much stronger EUR
Medium paced - portfolio managers: 
  • Portfolio flows: no investment pick-up into Europe yet, after years of outflows 
  • Equity market conviction: funds remain underweight on European equities relative to history
Slower moving - reserves holdings: 
  • Reserves managers: EUR holdings are at multi-year lows, and not rising yet 
  • Consensus forecasts: the sell-side does not appear to have become more bullish on the EUR yet; if anything, consensus is showing a lack of conviction
The fast money has become more positive on EUR but not to such a degree that it implies a pull-back is imminent. Meanwhile, the slower moving investors have shown little sign of turning more bullish. If they start to follow the speculators' lead, then EUR-USD could move significantly higher. We maintain a forecast of 1.20 for EURUSD by year-end.
--



View More

View Full Article with Comments 44

Author: Eamonn Sheridan
21

What's your #1 trading rule?

I've heard plenty. Warren Buffet, for example, has only two, apparently: 1. Don't lose money 2. See rule 1 Huh. I ask in reference to the AUD and the Australian trade balance data.

View More

Author: Adam Button
54

Death, taxes and retail traders making bad decisions

It's a bad day to be short EUR I don't know how reliable this data is but it has the ring of truth to it. Depressing truth but truth nonetheless. FXCM says that retail traders are short EUR/USD by a ratio of 4:1 at the moment. That means most accounts are taking an absolute beating today as the euro hits a 10-month high. They're also short every other euro cross and losing money there as well.

View More

Author: Eamonn Sheridan
3

Here's a quick Toby Crabel video

Toby Crabel is a legend, as is his book: Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout He has won the Pinnacle Achievement Award at MFPA 2017

View More

Author: Mike Paterson
17

Why the latest MPC vote doesn't mean a rate rise anytime soon

 A few thoughts following yesterday's surprise change in the BOE MPC vote Yes it was a surprise and the robots unsurprisingly took the pound up in rapid fashion, which suited me and I was able to sell around 1.2800 from the 6th tee at the charity golf day to which I had a long standing corporate commitment hence my early departure.

View More

Author: Adam Button
19

The two worst things about trading

...or why automation is so attractive Matt Levine has a great newsletter at Bloomberg. It's mostly about finance industry news and once in awhile it touches on forex.

View More

Author: Greg Michalowski
20

How bizzare? Is it? Let me explain.

What I really mean when I say.... I was reviewing  some of the major pairs, I looked at the AUDUSD and noted that the 0.7500 had been a technical stall point.  Specifically, I wrote:

View More

Author: Adam Button
2

This is the perfect complement to your squawk

A video on how to listen to a squawk and something else at the same time I'm in love with this thing. Get a free two week trial of Livesquawk by signing up with the promo code: forexlive

View More

Author: Greg Michalowski
31

Forex technical education: Do you see what I see in the USDJPY 5M chart?

Knowing the risk is step 1. If I had an option to know risk or reward, it is always risk.   Trading is about taking your account balance and making it larger (the reward). However, you can also have a negative reward. That is you can lose money too.   

View More

Author: Matthew Bacon-Hall
11

And what is a systematic account?

I referred to systematic sellers in the AUDUSD below 0.7330 in the Aussie order board Systematic,otherwise known as model accounts, are basically automated traded concepts which are employed by many funds and CTA's

View More

Author: Forex Live
2

Market hiccup or potential loss – The difference between retracement and reversal

This article is published by STO, an FCA regulated broker This is probably the most obvious sign of a retracement vs. a full reversal is the price crossing a major trendline. Of this means that the trends break on a high volume but generally these are used by traders to distinguish reversals or retracements. 

View More

Author: Mike Paterson
15

Pound pairs in retreat again as the week comes to a close

It's not been a good week for the UK 26 May Monday's tragic events in Manchester have cast a sad shadow over the whole week, and will continue to do so. Campaigning for the 8 June General Election was rightly put on hold but has now resumed and PM May's hope to fight it on purely a Brexit/fear of negotiations basis has been derailed as highlighted by the . I will stress again I have no political bias here, and remain just a more than interested observer.

View More

Author: Adam Button
3

The Federal Reserve's educational video series is pure gold

The Philly Fed's DVD series has quietly appeared on youtube It don't know how I've never seen this before. Evidently, back in 2013 the Philly Fed produced a video series on what the Federal Reserve is, and how it works. It's about 2 hours long.

View More

Author: Mike Paterson
3

Having a good day? It just got even better with this story.

Inspirational news reported by the BBC today 15 May I talk/teach a lot about keeping all things firmly in perspective - in life and trading- and this story can teach us all a bit about humility whilst retaining ambition.

View More

Author: Mike Paterson
1

BOE MPC Preview: Why Carney & Co will show caution today

Yes folks, it's Bank of England time again today at 11.00 GMT The interest rate decision and latest inflation report are both out at 11.00 GMT (Midday UK) followed by the Carney presser at 11.30 GMT.

View More


More Headlines