Stocks have climbed for two days. Some reasons I’m happy to take the other side of that trade, including declines in FX risk trades:
- USD/JPY is still falling
- Politics will be messy on jobs stimulus program
- Seasonals. Sept is a bad month for risk
The number one reason is that there has been no good news. It’s just a melt up in a quiet market. The best news that comes to mind from this week is talk that Greece is likely to receive the next tranche of aid. And that came at the same time as projections for growth were cut and deficits hiked. That being said, if we can get through US retail sales in the day ahead, the releases of the beaten down Philly Fed and UMich consumer sentiment on Thurs and Fri are more likely to boost sentiment than hurt it.
