Pennsylvania's 18th district is voting today
An unlikely loss in steel country could infuriate the President and make his allies on Congress wary of the mid-term elections later this year.
At around 11 pm ET tonight (0300 GMT), Pennsylvania officials will announce the final results but exit polls will be announced when polls close at 8 pm ET and rolling numbers will soon follow. In any case, don't expect a market move.
At the start of the year a poll showed Republican candidate Rick Saccone leading Democratic opponent Conor Lamb 46%-34% with 20% undecided but the race quickly swung, in part because Lamb is a strong candidate and an ex-marine and Federal prosecutor. Two final polls put the Democrat ahead 48%-45% and 51%-45% despite a push from Trump.
The loss would be an embarrassment for Trump and a troubling signal to other Congressmen. The big risk is it prompts some kind of confrontation or deadlock between Trump and vulnerable Congressmen ahead of November's vote.
If you want to follow the results in real-time, CNN has a great statistical primer.
