Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate for 1Q growth comes in at 2.6% vs 3.2% last

Author: Greg Michalowski | Category: News

Weaker data today, sends the estimate below the 3.0% level. 

The Atlanta Fed GDP now estimate for first-quarter growth came in lower at 2.6% versus 3.2% last.

In their words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 2.6 percent on February 27, down from 3.2 percent on February 16. After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators and durable manufacturing reports from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of the contributions of real nonresidential equipment investment and real inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth declined from 0.45 percentage points and 1.20 percentage points, respectively, to 0.37 percentage points and 0.95 percentage points, respectively. The nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth declined from 0.6 percent on February 16 to -4.5 percent on February 26 after housing market releases from the Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors.

There was a lot of chatter when the estimate was up at 5.4% shortly after the estimates started for the 1Q (despite warnings to be cautious given the lack of data).  Since then, the growth rate has been steadily moving to the downside and is more congruent with private estimates.  

The next report will be released on Thursday, March 1st.