This is a quickie preview for inventories, which will go into Q4 2017 Australian GDP due Wednesday

Due 0030 GMT (ps. there is another input due at the same time, profits - more to come on a separate preview for this)

Q4 inventories

  • expected 0.5% q/q, prior 0.2%

Preview via Westpac:

Inventories were volatile in 2017, in part due to the impact of weather disruptions over the first half of the year.

  • In Q3, inventory levels broadly stabilised, expanding by 0.2% ($0.3bn), to be 1.0% above the level of a year earlier. Inventories added 0.2ppts to activity in the period.

For Q4, we expect a return to volatility, with a 1.0% ($1.6bn) rise in inventories, adding 0.3ppts to activity.

  • Notably, imports of goods (ex fuel) spiked in the month of December, up 6% ($1.3bn), suggesting an abnormal clustering of shipments ahead of the new year. Some of these imported items will show-up initially as inventories
  • Another consideration, mining inventories contracted sharply in Q3, -$0.7bn (in part to facilitate a lift in export shipments), a result that is unlikely to be repeated in Q4.
  • As always with inventories, we note the elevated uncertainty.

Via ANZ:

  • Following the 0.2% rise in Q3, we expect a 0.5% rise in inventories in Q4. This would see private non-farm inventories add around 0.1ppt to GDP growth in the quarter.
  • Measures of inventories are notoriously difficult to forecast, so this could be a key swing factor for GDP. Moreover, keep in mind, that the volatile farm and public inventories numbers (not included in this release) can swing the National Accounts measure of total inventories around.

(bodings in the above are mine)

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(Also due today at 0030 GMT is Q4 Company profits, I'll be back with more on this, but for now ...

  • expected 1.5% q/q, prior 0.2%)

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Also due from Australia today,

And more ...

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Which is all well and good, but there are

to be aware of ...