The data won't be fire and fury, but it may have a subdued FX impact - previews below
Due at 0130GMT - Australia - Housing finance data for July
- Home loans m/m, expected is 1.5%, prior was 1.0%
- Investment lending m/m, prior was -1.4%
- Owner-occupied loan value m/m, prior was 2.9%
The data is being impacted by new macro-prudential measures aimed at slowing lending for investment into housing (and thereby boosting 'owner occupied' participation). Data surprises higher in these should be mildly AUD supportive.
ANZ:
- forecast the number of housing finance commitments nudged higher in June, marking a second consecutive monthly increase
- Nonetheless, tighter regulation and out of cycle mortgage rate increases are likely to mean that the current improvement is only temporary
CBA:
- Small rise in loans to owner-occupiers, indicating some switching from investor lending underway
- Total lending expected to show modest rise
- Overall trend in lending is lower, with APRA changes to limit lending growth
- Higher interest rates to investors also will be crimping demand
Westpac:
- The number of owner occupier loans rose 1% in May to be down 3.5%yr. This was the second monthly observation since APRA's macro prudential tightening in late March and associated increases in rates for investor and 'interest only' loans. Some of the rise in owner occupier loans is likely due to switching between investor and owner occupier products.
- A lift in refinancing suggests we may also be seeing existing borrowers move from interest only to standard loans. Notably both the value of investor loans and the total value of loans also held up a bit better than expected (down 1.4% and up 0.1% respectively).
- For June, industry data points to another lift in owner occupier loans, which we expect to be up 1.5%mth.
- Note that a second round of mortgage rate increases for 'interest only' loans came through late in the month.
