While the main focus will be on the business conditions and confidence survey, home loans data will be heeded.
The main AUD impact will come from the business survey results, though, unless loans is a shock (downside will ignite 'housing crash' fears, misguided though they have been for ... well, decades; a topside shock on the other should prompt chatter of shifting RBA expectations, i.e. hike sooner (otherwise this is a good way off still) and should be an AUD positive)
Previews:
ANZ:
- ANZ Research believes the number of owner-occupier housing finance commitments fell marginally in January.
- The market is highly fragmented at present, with greater numbers of first home buyers largely offsetting weakness in the investment segment. We do not anticipate that the overall number of loans will return to recent peaks; rather, we expect lending to stabilise.
Westpac:
- Australian housing finance approvals posted a soft finish to 2017, the number of approvals for owner occupiers dipping 2.3%. Approvals ex refi were down 3.4%mth but still up 2.1%yr. The value of housing finance approvals to investors also posted a decline, down 2.6% to be 10.5% lower for the year with a notably sharper fall in NSW.
- Industry figures suggest January was another soft month for owner occupier approvals - we expect a 1.0% decline. As always, housing data should be treated with extra caution around the summer holiday low period as seasonal adjustment can amplify monthly volatility.
And ...
