Due at 0130GMT and the focus for Australian data today - Labour Market Report for July from the Australian Bureau of Statistics

Last month was a very strong report indeed, following improving reports in the immediately preceding months.

Employment Change:

  • expected 20.0K, prior 14.0K

Unemployment Rate:

  • expected 5.6%, prior 5.6%

Full Time Employment Change

  • prior was+62.0 K

Part Time Employment Change

  • prior was -48.0K

Participation Rate

  • expected is 65.0%, prior was 65.0%

Previews via the Australian banks (bolding mine):

ANZ:

  • We expect another solid labour market report for July and look for a rise of 20k jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.6%.
  • While the labour market numbers have been particularly strong over recent months, ongoing solid growth in job ads and elevated business conditions suggest that the strength is likely to continue in the near term.

CBA:

  • Leading indicators are pointing to jobs growth of around 20k a month which would be enough to put some soft downward pressure on the unemployment rate.
  • Another decent report would build on the previous four strong outcomes to confirm that the labour market is on a solid improving trend.

NAB:

  • It is a statistical lottery at the best of times and the market looks for employment growth of +20k and an unchanged unemployment rate at 5.6%.
  • Upside risks are likely to the consensus given strong forward indicators to date (rising job ads and a stronger NAB survey) and a possible upward tilt from sample rotation. NAB accordingly forecasts employment +25k m/m with upside risks and a fall in the unemployment rate to 5.5%.

Westpac:

  • May and June were robust updates from the Labour Force survey. The recovery in employment was something that our Jobs Index had been pointing to for some time and our employment forecasts going forward incorporated on-going strength at least to year end.
  • Total employment rose 14k in June compared to the market's forecast of 15k. Full-time employment surged 62.0k following on from a 53.4k gain in May. In the year full-time employment gained 175.4k/2.1%. Part-time employment fell 48k following a -15.4k in May. In the year part-time employment lifted 64.8k/1.7%, slower than full-time employment for the first time since Mar 2015.
  • Employment is now running on par with our Jobs Index which is pointing to it accelerating as we near year end.
  • Our forecast for 35k will hold the annual pace at 2.0%yr. The solid June gain in employment was matched by a 0.1ppt lift in participation. This led to a 27.1k gain in the labour force thus holding the unemployment rate flat at 5.6%. However, at two decimal places the unemployment rate was 5.65% up almost 0.1ppt from 5.56% in May so it was a very small smidgen off being rounded up to 5.7%. We believe we have seen the low in unemployment and expect it to hold around 5.6% until it starts to drift higher as we move into 2018. Robust employment growth is drawing workers back into the labour force (and/or holding more in the labour force), lifting participation and preventing any near term dip in unemployment. For July, strong employment should again be associated with higher participation. At 65.1% participation should lift the labour force enough to hold unemployment at 5.6%.