June retail sales data due on Friday 4 August 2017 at 11.30 am Sydney time, 0130GMT

  • expected +0.2% m/m,
  • prior was +0.6%

In addition to the June figures there is also Q2 data - Retail Sales excl. inflation

  • expected +1.2% q/q, prior +0.1%

Previews via the big four Australian banks, I've bolded parts for emphasis:

ANZ:

We expect monthly retail sales to have risen by 0.1% in June, consolidating two very strong months. That strength underpins our forecast for a solid 1.3% q/q rise for retail volumes.

  • Retail price inflation is likely to record another soft result consistent with retail prices in the CPI.
  • Over the quarter, consumer confidence improved, NAB business conditions for retail rose, fuel prices fell and auction clearance rates stabilised at still elevated levels.

CBA:

Retail trade looks to have bounced back strongly in Q1, with solid readings for April and May.

  • We expect another decent 0.5% increase in June.
  • Combined with flat prices over the quarter this would see trade up 1.4% in Q2.

NAB:

Retail Sales is the most sensitive of the data prints for the week, this last month of the quarter providing nominal sales growth (or not!) for the month and sales volumes for the quarter. For the June month, NAB's forecast (partly based on NAB's new Cashless Retail Sales Index for June) is for flat sales, while competitive conditions still evident in the NAB Business Survey through to May.

  • While there is some downside risk to this estimate - together with damped sales prospects in the near term from the already in place rises in power prices - we are also mindful the Department Store Sales dipped in May and often sees payback the next month within still difficult conditions.

Westpac:

  • Retail sales came in better than expected for April with a 0.6% gain following on from April's 1% bounce-back from a weather-affected 0.1% contraction in March. The April detail suggested a genuine lift in momentum over and above weather-related volume and price impacts.
  • Despite the lift, the backdrop in terms of consumer sentiment remains shaky with signs family finances came under renewed pressure over the first half of 2017 with mortgage rate increases in March and continued concerns around housing markets. That said, labour market conditions have improved.
  • The Q2 CPI also suggests retail prices have been flat with continued aggressive discounting in non-food segments.
  • On balance we expect June to post a flat result for monthly sales.
  • Real retail sales rose just 0.1% in Q1 with weather a key restraining factor - sales in cyclone-affected Qld contracted 1%qtr but rose 0.4%qtr across the rest of Aus. The Q2 update is shaping as a strong one. Even with a flat monthly finish, nominal sales are on track for a 1.3% rise over the quarter.
  • The CPI detail also points to a subdued retail deflator - up about 0.2% despite a weather-related jump in some food prices. The combination gives a 1.1% rise in real retail sales, with some upside risk if the deflator comes in weaker. Note that the retail measure remains a problematic indicator for the broader spending estimates in the national accounts - although the direction for Q2 looks right, the swings in total spending are likely to be much milder than the retail moves.

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Also due tomorrow is the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest SoMP - more on that coming in a separate post