Briefly from Barclays
the bank notes:
- Strong global growth
- elevated commodity prices
- slowly tightening DM central banks
.... should continue supporting emerging markets
And:
- Global inflation remains well-behaved
- a move to "normality" is far away
- Inflation fundamentals suggest a slow grind higher, rather than an inflexion point.
On currencies:
- recent trade-weighted SGD weakness provides an opportunity to enter SGD longs ahead of Monday's Budget and the MAS monetary policy tightening in April
- ZAR should remain supported into Wednesday's budget but we expect limited further appreciation
- MXN potential upside, amid broad USD retracement, is limited
Trades for the week ahead:
- Short USDSGD spot as trade-weighted SGD weakness provides an opportunity to enter longs and long BRLMXN spot, as BRL catches up with the rest of EM and further MXN gains look limited. ( ... These are existing trade recommendations and have not been issued just for the week. )