FRANKFURT (MNI) – German GDP is expected to stagnate or post a
slight contraction in the fourth quarter of this year, the Bundesbank
said in its Monthly Report issued Monday.
Germany’s central bank said third quarter GDP likely saw continued
growth after industrial production surprised to the upside in the summer
months, but demand for industrial goods has weakened noticeably heading
into the final months of the year.
“The signs are intensifying that after a noticeable expansion of
economic activity in the third quarter 2012, a stagnation or light
contraction in gross domestic product could follow in the final quarter
of the year,” the Bundesbank said.
The Bundesbank noted that improved industrial numbers in the summer
were partly due to some auto plants not instituting normal summer halts
in production – an effect which will fall off in the fourth quarter.
Added to this, “declining demand for industrial goods will become
more noticeable” in the fourth quarter, the central bank said. Weakening
new orders also indicate “that a moderation in production could be
imminent.”
While new orders from within the Eurozone have stabilized after
massive declines in previous quarters, the Bundesbank noted that growth
in demand from emerging markets had “come to a standstill” amid a
weakening global economic outlook.
By contrast, the Bundesbank said the housing market and domestic
consumption should continue to support growth in Germany. Foreign trade
has also continued to show growth, the central bank noted.
— Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: ccermak@mni-news.com —
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