CAD could be on track for more fall - here's why (focus on EUR/CAD)

Some points made by Société Générale in an overnight note on CAD, specifically on EUR/CAD

Bank of Canada governor Poloz pushed back expectations for higher interest rates

• CAD losses appear exaggerated tactically
• But momentum may be prove difficult to stop until EUR/USD pulls back and Canada signs a renegotiated NAFTA deal with the US

A break of 1.61 potentially opens up a return to 1.70

• EUR operating as a safe haven should investors lose further patience with US policies
• Without a rise in oil prices and with the next rate increase delayed, the CAD may struggle to justify its valuation and could be subject to a further 3% depreciation to take it back to the 20-year average

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EUR/CAD has come a long at though ...