By Karan Landge

OTTAWA (MNI) – Canadian employment is expected to have grown in
July, by a modest 10,000 new jobs, following strong gains of 58,000 in
April, 22,000 in May and 28,000 in June.

Statistics Canada is expected to report Friday a slowing but still
positive rate of job increase in Canada in July, according to a
consensus of economists surveyed by Market News International. They
expect the unemployment rate to remain at the June level of 7.4%.

The consensus is the median of forecasts received, and within it
there are some fairly striking differences. For instance, Sal Guatieri,
senior economist at BMO Economics, is at the lower level of the range.
“We expect a modest increase of 5,000 jobs, a below average growth
compared with the first six months of 2011, just enough to hold the
unemployment rate steady at 7.4%,” he told MNI.

“We think that a slowing of the Canadian economy is being reflected
in the labor market,” Guatieri said. Further: “Manufacturing may see
another setback because of the strong Canadian dollar and weak United
States demand. Construction may also show a decline due to moderation in
the housing market.” He saw job gains in mining and energy, with most of
July’s gains in business and professional services.

At the high end of the forecasts, Paul Ferley, assistant chief
economist at RBC Economics, expects a gain of 30,000 jobs in July
because “the quarterly profile has shown a more stable improving trend
with employment gains from 6,000 jobs in the third quarter of 2010 to
83,000 jobs in the first quarter of 2011.”

“We are expecting the goods producing sector alone to produce
10,000 jobs, reflecting improvements in motor vehicle sales in July,”
Ferley said. He expected the unemployment rate would remain at 7.4%
despite a strong jobs gain, because of a comparable rise in the labor
force.

Emanuella Enenajor, an economist at CIBC, said: “We expect 10,000
jobs to be added, not a very strong rise but an increase nonetheless,
with the unemployment level remaining at 7.4%”

Enenajor expected no increase in government hiring in July but said
the private sector should add the jobs. “Construction employment could
post a huge gain due to the recent increase in housing starts,” she
said.

Employment had risen by 24,000 in May, mainly because of gains in
transportation and warehousing (+15,000). The unemployment rate dropped
0.2 percentage points from 7.6% in April to 7.4% in May , and remained
at 7.4% in June.

— Karan Landge is a reporter with Need To Know News In Ottawa

** Market News International Ottawa **

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$C$$$]