August GDP data is due from Canada Tuesday 31 October 2017 at 1230 GMT

Here are some bank previews:

HSBC:

  • We expect the economy to expand by 0.1% month-on-month in August.
  • Preliminary data points toward gains in manufacturing and wholesale sales, and a decline in retail sales. Despite the 0.7% month-on-month decline in real retail sales in August, we look for the services sector to expand by 0.1%.
  • We also expect goods sector output to rise by 0.1%, with gains in manufacturing, construction, and utilities more than offsetting a second straight drop in oil and gas production.
  • From a peak of 4.6% in May, we look for the year-on-year rate of GDP growth to slow to 3.6% in August. Overall, we believe that the pace of expansion will slow sharply to 0.1% per month in H2, from an average monthly expansion of 0.4% in H1.

BMO:

  • The Canadian economy likely increased 0.1% in August, continuing the broader deceleration after a year of torrid growth.
  • Decent gains in the monthly manufacturing and wholesale reports suggest those sectors will add to growth, while retail sales look to be a drag.
  • Home sales rebounded in August after four consecutive monthly declines, which should provide a lift to real estate activity.
  • Hours worked fell 0.1% in the month, reinforcing our call for subdued growth.
  • It hasn't paid to bet against Canada's economy over the past year, but that run of exceptional strength is coming to an end. Our call would keep Q3 GDP on pace for about 2% growth.

CIBC:

  • Call it another month, and another flat reading for Canadian GDP.
  • Although manufacturing bucked the recent trend lower in exports, slippage in retail sales for August suggests a further stalling in Canadian output.
  • The one swing factor could be the energy sector. After seeing weakness in production last month, we would be tempted to forecast a rebound. However, the softening in crude volumes sent stateside suggest that we may be due for production to come down further from the highs reached a few months ago.
  • Another soft reading in August keeps us on track to see a significant slowing in growth in the third quarter. Although the 2% or so pace isn't a disaster by any stretch of the imagination, it isn't hot enough to force the Bank of Canada's hand toward another rate hike before the end of this year-something Governor Poloz apparently agrees with judging by the past week's rate announcement and MPR.

RBC:

  • We see monthly GDP increasing by 0.2% m/m in August after a flat reading in July. Manufacturing GDP should rise in the month after a 0.4% m/m decline in July, while mining, oil and gas output should be little changed following a 1.2% fall.
  • On the services side, a retail volume decline (-0.7%) should be partially offset by a 0.4% gain in wholesale volumes, while early indications suggest that other services categories should rise ~0.2% m/m.
  • We are monitoring between 0.1% and 0.2% for the month, so the former would not come as a big surprise, nor would it alter our 2.0% q/q annualized monitoring for Q3 (just above the BoC's updated 1.8% forecast).