There is no firm date nor time for new yuan loans, aggregate financing, and money supply Chinese data. Due any time up to 15 February:
January new yuan loans
expected 2050bn CNY, prior 584.4bn
Bank lending will be impacted this month (as it always in January) by Chinese banks tending to "front-load" loans in the first month of the year to win market share ,
Aggregate financing RMB for January
expected 3150.0bn, prior 1139.8bn
Money supply M0 (Jan) y/y
- expected 4.2%, prior 3.4%
Money supply M1
- expected 13.5%, prior 1.8%
Money supply M2
- expected 8.2%, prior 8.2
As you can see, the two 'headline' numbers; new yuan loans and aggregate financing are both (consensus) expected to have jumped bigly from December.
Note that Lunar New Year celebrations may very well skew the data.
- Many factories and businesses shut for weeks
- This year the LNY festivities begin on February 16, against January 28 in 2017
Despite this, there will be a focus on how the government's continued crackdown on debt risks is impacting business access to financing.
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Preview via UBS:
Headline new bank loans likely rebounded seasonally to RMB 2.1 trillion in January
- largely similar to a year ago
- Both mortgage and corporate loans likely bounced on the back of this year's newly released loan quota
- New corporate bond issuance however likely contracted last month given fragile market sentiment.
- New shadow credit (e.g. entrust loans, undiscounted bills) may have rebounded seasonally but remained subdued due to ongoing financial regulatory tightening.
More:
- no local government bond issuance last month as usual
- Our credit impulse (y/y change of new overall credit as a share of GDP) likely turned more negative, and new credit flow (seasonally adjusted new overall credit / GDP, 3mma) edged down.
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Also, a what to expect from Beijing-based investment bank China
International Capital Corporation (CICC) (via Xinhua):
New yuan loans expected at a new high in January
- CICC citing robust long-term credit demand from businesses and organizations
- corporate loans (both long- and short-term lending) will account for >60% of the total
- mortgage loans will increase
Total social financing to drop due to tightened regulation of off-balance-sheet business including entrust loans
M2 growth to remain flat month on month