China financing data is due this week (or next looking more likely) - preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

I posted yesterday on the New yuan loans and Aggregate financing data due from China

  • Due sometime 10th to 15th August (11th to 15th now, of course)

A couple of very quick previews:

We expect monthly new RMB lending to moderate to RMB900bn from RMB1,540bn in June, after strong quarter-end lending. Total social financing also is likely to come in lower at RMB1,200bn, amidst tighter financial regulations targeted at off-balance sheet credit growth. As a result, M2 growth likely remained muted, but could see some lift from a low base last year.

We expect total social financing and new loans to decline in July due to seasonal effects and mortgage tightening measures. M2 growth is likely to remain low at 9.4%, as financial deleveraging continues.