Economic Information daily on Chinese GDP forecasts
- 2017 Q3 GDP around 6.8%
- 2017 GDP also around 3.8%
- 2017 Q4 growth around 6.7%
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Q3 GDP data is due on Thursday this week
- expected 6.8% y/y and 1.7% q/q (priors 6.9%, 1.7%)
- YTD expected 6.8% (prior 6.9%)
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And, inflation data is due today, at 0130 GMT
- CPI expected 1.6%, prior 1.8%
- PPI expected 6.4%, prior 6.3%
preview via Nomura,:
- We have an out-of-consensus call in which PPI inflation rises further to 6.8% y-o-y in September, partly driven by China's continued efforts to reduce overcapacity in upstream industries and pollution
- We believe that rising high-frequency data and the price sub-indexes of the September PMIs also support out above-consensus PPI forecast
- We expect CPI inflation to ease modestly because of the high base of food prices last September
