One of the issues abut thinking through the impact of the US government shut down is the competing voices on either sides of the political fence. Try to ignore these.
Have at it by all means, but for traders I think this little piece from HSBC sums it up (bolding mine):
- The USD remains on the defensive, despite high Treasury yields
- market ponders .... US government shut-down
- It is unlikely that this issue will have a prolonged impact on the USD given it should not materially alter expectations for GDP growth, inflation or Fed policy
- Still, for now, the USD appears happy to trade in reaction to the latest headline
Yeah - it'll depend on your time frame. And, also ... there are other impacts on specific currencies to bear in mind. For example, just scanning down the list of posts so far this week:
- German politics,
- Brexit,
- BOJ,
- ECB
Carry on.
