Highlights from the WSJ's monthly survey of US economists
- Economists on average see Fed funds rate at 2.25% at year end compared to 2.21% in Feb and 2.17% in Jan
- About half of economists see 3 hikes and half see 4 hikes this year
- The consensus was for another 2 hikes in 2019
- Virtually every economist expected a hike next week
- Economists see inflation rising to 2.1% in Q4 and leveling out from there
- Long-run unemployment was seen at 4.3%, unchanged from the Jan survey
- Long-run inflation was seen at 2.1% compared to 2.0% in January
- Long-run Fed funds were seen at 3.03% compared to 2.85% in January
Overall, this should offer a good indication of the direction of Fed shifts in next week's new set of forecasts. It also shows roughly the changes that are expected.
