If QE is in fact dollar bearish, the market is making the case for no strong QE talk from Bernanke at 10 AM. The price is below the 100 hour MA at the 1.2281 level and also below the low from June 1 at 1.2287. The high since 7 AM has been 1.2287. Stay below through testimony = bearish. Move above = bullish.
On the downside, the 38.2% of the weeks range comes in at 1.22621. A move below this level should lead to further downside momentum for the pair. THe 100 hour MA (blue line in the hourly) comes in at 1.2235. Downside trend line on the daily comes in at 1.2175. This is also the low for the week. Below that, the low on the move down in July comes in at 1.2162. The 50% of the lifetime range for the EURUSD comes in at 1.2131.
