There is a 0.8% probability of a hike.
The Fed decision is due tomorrow and Yellen and the Fed is expected to announce no change in policy. The hike probability is at 0.8% which is about as close as 0.0% as you can get. However, the chance for a December hike is up at 82.8%.
So the market will be focusing on what the statement says and the telegraphing of a December hike. There will be no press conference this meeting.
In other Fed news, it is expected that President Trump will announce that Jerome Powell will be named the next Fed chair on Thursday. He will take over for Janet Yellen whose term expires in February. A current member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Powell is most like Yellen (without being Yellen who was an Obama appointee).
In other events tomorrow in the US, if there is not action off the Fed decision, focus will turn to the earnings of Tesla and Facebook after the close. Tesla today has rebounded about 3% to $329. The car/technology company traded as high as $389.60. Meanwhile, Facebook traded to new record highs at $180.80 today. It is currently trading up $0.23 at $180.10. On Thursday, Apple will release there earning after the close. The iPhone X sales are going through the roof and the reviews are also very favorable. Apple stock traded to record highs at $169.65 today. It is currently trading at $169 up 1.35% on the day (would be a record close).
On the economic calendar:
- ADP employment change will perhaps a bias of the NFP report on Friday. The ADP is expected to show a gain of 196K vs 135K last month. The NFP report on Friday is expected to rebound to 310K after dipping negative to -33K last month (hurricane influenced). The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% last month.
- ISM manufacturing is expected to dip to 59.4 from 60.8. Prices paid is expected to fall to 67.8 vs 71.5 last month. Both are still at high levels (ISM reached the highest since May 2004 and prices paid at highest level since 2011)
For a look at the last statement from the Fed CLICK HERE.
