The nonfarm payroll report comes on Friday this week; here is GS with some thoughts on the labour market in the United States ahead of then:
(in summary)
Despite recent weakness in inflation data, our conviction that we are at full employment remains relatively high.
- Other labor market indicators − job openings, quits, reported skill shortages − suggest an even stronger labor market than the unemployment rate.
- And we do not think the recent price and wage data imply additional slack, as the recent slowdown has come mostly in areas less indicative of labor market slack.
And, implications for the Federal Open Market Committee:
Thus, faced with an economy at full employment, we think the Fed is likely to follow a September balance sheet announcement with a December hike
