The economic data calendar is a very busy one during the Europe time zone today

Mike will have the full list later, but here are previews for the big ones coming up. I'm posting them now as I am expecting the Bank of Japan any time from 0230 GMT onwards (Bank of Japan meeting concludes today - here is when to expect the announcement)

All due at 1000 GMT for the eurozone

  • September unemployment,
  • Q3 advance GDP
  • and October CPI estimate and core advance

Unemployment:

HSBC:

  • The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1% in August for the third month in a row.
  • While Germany reached a new post-unification low of 3.6%,
  • France saw its unemployment rate increasing to 9.8%, the highest level so far this year.
  • Although job creation remains strong across the eurozone, including in France, rising participation rates might be dampening the reduction in the unemployment rate.
  • The employment component of the composite PMI eased back slightly by 0.5pts to 53.9 in August but remained at an elevated level.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to fall to 9.0% in September.

GDP, Q3, Preliminary

Barclays:

  • We look for economic activity to have remained strong in Q3, with a GDP growth of 0.54% q/q, after 0.65% in Q2.
  • We expect domestic demand to remain the main growth driver (+0.48pp), while net trade contribution should be slightly positive (+0.1pp).
  • Buoyant PMI and European Commission surveys attached upside risks to our forecast.

HSBC:

  • Throughout Q3, survey data have been pointing to a continuation of the solid growth momentum in the eurozone.
  • According to the survey provider, the composite PMIs were consistent with quarterly growth on 0.7% q-o-q in Q3. We think this might be slightly optimistic and see eurozone growth at 0.5% q-o-q in Q3, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 2.3%.
  • However, the strong industrial production print in August (1.4% m-o-m) - if confirmed in September - could add 0.2-0.3pp to the quarterly growth rate, indicating a clear upside risk to our forecast.

CPI, October preliminary

Barclays:

  • We are slightly above consensus in expecting euro area "flash" HICP inflation to remain unchanged at 1.5% in October, but in line with consensus in projecting core prices to print 1.1% y/y as in September.
  • Risks regarding our headline forecast are skewed to the downside, while those related to core are biased to the upside. At 2dp we project 1.47% and 1.14%, respectively.

HSBC:

  • The headline eurozone inflation rate came in at 1.5% y-o-y for the second month in a row in September. Core and services inflation however fell back by 0.1pp to 1.1% and 1.5% y-o-y respectively, as the spike in tourism-related services prices started to fade.
  • Energy inflation was relatively stable, despite the sharp monthly rise in pump prices (+1.8%) on the back of rising oil prices. We expect headline inflation to fall to 1.4% y-o-y in October and continue to fall later in the year due to the base effects of energy. Core inflation should remain at 1.1% y-o-y.