Its Federal Open Market Committee day! Announcement coming (of a rate hike) at 1900 GMT

I've popped up a few previews already:

Barclays

HSBC:

Now this, via :

UBS:

The FOMC will almost certainly hike by 25 bp at the upcoming December meeting.

  • The Minutes for the November meeting and recent Fedspeak show growing concern about inflation among FOMC participants, but not enough to stay their hand at this meeting.
  • In fact, the last CPI print likely gave them some solace, and there will be another CPI print on the second day of the meeting.
  • Our forecast is for a print of 0.2% month/month, a clearly solid print.

We think that the ongoing recovery in inflation from its transitory weakness will be reflected in their statement.

  • We believe they will note the recent improvement of monthly inflation, adding "in recent months [inflation] may have begun to recover".

The FOMC will pull the tax cuts into their baseline

  • As of September, the FOMC had little if any stimulus from fiscal policy in their forecasts. That view will almost certainly change by next week's meeting, and we believe that the committee will incorporate substantial tax effects.

The GDP forecast will be boosted next year and the year after, and the unemployment rate will be revised lower.

  • Inflation should be steady as the FOMC offsets an inclination to mark inflation a tenth lower with the positive impulse from the stimulus.

With the tax cut, the recovery in inflation, and the lower unemployment rate, the dot plot will show more hiking.

  • We think they could move the median up to four hikes next year, with the level of the funds rate 50 basis points higher in 2019 and 2020 than was the case in September.
  • An overshoot of the funds rate over the neutral rate, which was barely noticeable in September, will be more pronounced.

The opening remarks will likely note that the hike in rates was predicated on the FOMC's forecast for rising inflation.

  • She will also likely discuss the way that the tax plan is incorporated into the FOMC forecasts and the attendant uncertainty. No doubt, she will receive questions about the transition to Powell and her plans after the Fed. On the first, she will be positive and on the second, she will deflect.