HSBC on the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes (October meeting) released yesterday

A familiar tone from RBA minutes

  • The central bank took solace that Q2 growth confirmed the weakness in Q1 had been temporary.
  • It also said that the strength of the labour market should support household spending, but it noted that real wages growth is slow and high levels of household debt could act as "constraining influences".
  • Our economists expect that the ongoing tightening of the labour market will nudge wages growth higher sufficiently to prompt an RBA rate hike in Q1 18.
  • On the AUD, the RBA said that a "material further appreciation" would act as a headwind to activity and inflation.

HSBC have had an RBA hike pencilled in for Q1 of 2018 for a while now, ni change in view from them.