It seems like data is not too relevant right now ... all about the politics:
- Tariffs
- North Korea
- Brexit
amirightoramiright?
But, for those interested ... UK trade and output numbers coming up, due at 0930GMT
GMT. A couple of quickie previews:
Barclays:
- Car production rebounded in January following year-end inventory adjustments. This helps support intermediaries and manufacturing production.
- The Forties pipeline reopened in January with just a one day outage; expect an IP bounce as this negative drag fades.
Nomura:
- A sharp deterioration in the balance on erratic items was only partly offset by a strong end to the year for underlying exports. As a result, the total goods deficit widened by over £1bn during the month. We forecast a modest narrowing of the deficit in January albeit with the usual bands of uncertainty due to the monthly volatility of this series.
- UK Industrial production: Manufacturing output rose for the eighth month in a row in December having averaged just over 0.4% m-o-m during that period. There was nothing in the January PMI or CBI surveys to suggest this run will be broken in January, though of course the official data represent a volatile series, so there is always the risk of a decline. We forecast a small rise of 0.2% m-o-m in manufacturing.
RBC:
- These data points for January will provide the first hard inputs into the Q1 GDP calculation.
- For industrial production, note that the average temperature for January was close to the long-run norm, so the prospect of a strong contribution from energy output will be delayed until next month, when the late February freeze should be expected to have boosted demand for heating. For the January readings, therefore, the ongoing strength seen in recent months in manufacturing production is the best hope for continued expansion, as the PMI has remained elevated.
