Export growth has been a strong positive for the Japanese economy, better growth in the global economy has helped Japanese exports. Export performance has levelled off somewhat, though.
Data due at 2350GMT
Trade Balance for July:
- expected Y 327.1bn, prior was Y 439.8bn
Trade balance (adjusted):
- expected Y 195.3bn, prior was Y 81.4bn
Exports y/y:
- expected +13.2%, prior was +9.7% - exports have been strong for Japan, helping to support economic recovery
Imports y/y:
- expected +17.%, prior was +15.5%
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A couple of quickie views from banks:
Barclays:
- Export to Asia will be a particular focus after volumes fell m/m for a fourth straight month in June.
- Recent PMI readings bode well.
- We expect GDP based real exports to decrease q/q in Q2, but to increase again from Q3.
HSBC:
- Exports increased 9.7% y-o-y in June, led by shipments of automobiles and electronics.
- Meanwhile, import growth moderated to 15.5% y-o-y.
- Sequential momentum in exports lost steam in Q2 2017, although the y-o-y growth is likely to be maintained at a solid pace in the following months.
- We forecast exports increased 14.0% y-o-y in July, while imports rose 16.0%.
- This should bring the overall trade surplus to JPY471bn.
