I posted on the GS view earlier here:
Just adding a little more detail on the Goldman Sachs projection for further spending:
- If Democrats manage to win both of the Senate seats in play in Georgia, they would win 50 seats, which would allow Vice President-elect Harris to cast the tie-breaking vote.
- This would lead to greater fiscal stimulus
- we would expect around $600bn more on top of the recently enacted $900bn
- but would also likely mean tax increases to finance additional spending
- Regarding the latter, we would expect that an evenly divided Senate would approve only a fraction of the tax increases the Biden campaign proposed.
On the Dem's prospects to win GS say this:
- There are encouraging signs for Democrats in the Senate runoffs
- Prediction markets appear to take the same view and imply nearly even odds that Democrats win both seats, up from around 20% shortly after the November election
