I posted a couple earlier here: Its European Central Bank day - ECB statement and Draghi news conference - previews

More now, this via Société Générale

  • Just as consensus had come around to the idea that the ECB will taper next year due to limited bonds and the strong economy, the ECB is meeting increasing headwinds from the stronger euro.
  • The inflation outlook remains predictably anaemic, and if President Draghi is to be taken at his dovish word, that should imply filling up the bowl by either increasing the issuer limit or adding new asset purchase programmes. However, the silver lining is the real economy.
  • Putting more effort into explaining why the euro is rising on it and on how the balance sheet will continue to deliver stimulus even after tapering could allow for gradual tapering.
  • ... core inflation forecast for 2019 is thus crucial. As the ECB may still need some evidence of rising underlying inflation - hopefully from German wages early next year - to accelerate tapering, we maintain our call for a six-month extension of APP, at €40bn/month, until June 2018. The ECB may only be ready to announce its decision in October (or later), but we see no material benefit in waiting - the upside surprises in the real economy may not continue - and instead see benefit in an announcement next week, with the usual disclaimer of action being contingent on the outlook.
  • Rather than obsessing over smaller under- or over-shootings of the inflation target, it is time to worry about potential hangovers and the integrity of the punch bowl.

And, HSBC:

  • The meeting will be widely watched as the ECB has said it will decide its next move on QE "in the autumn".
  • We believe an announcement on QE won't happen until October and maintain our view that tapering will be gradual through 2018, with no rate rises this or next year.
  • Also, updated ECB staff forecasts will be published at this meeting. We think the ECB will, once again, have to revise down its inflation projections by 0.1pp to 1.5% for 2019, mainly due to the recent euro appreciation. Continued strong data also suggest more momentum in economic activity and we expect GDP growth to be revised up in both 2018 and 2019.