Yesterday we got Q2 employment data from NZ which showed a surprise (big) miss

-1.0% m/m

  • prior +1.3% (the number of job ads in June was at a record)

+9.9% y/y

  • prior +11.0%
  • the 3 month MA of the y/y is +11.1%, prior +12.5%)

ANZ comments (in brief)

  • Clear softening
  • Workers hard to find
  • Finding skilled staff the biggest problem holding back firms (according to our Small Business Monitor)
  • There is not a pool of suitable labour for most firms despite the unemployment rate being 4.8% ... That's a classic late-cycle challenge and signals pressure for wage growth to rise

More from ANZ:

Looking through the monthly noise, job ads growth has slowed to just 0.5% q/q. That moderation is reflected in annual job growth easing from a peak of 19.6% in January to 12.2% in July (3-month average). That's a turning point.