Yesterday we got Q2 employment data from NZ which showed a surprise (big) miss
-1.0% m/m
- prior +1.3% (the number of job ads in June was at a record)
+9.9% y/y
- prior +11.0%
- the 3 month MA of the y/y is +11.1%, prior +12.5%)
ANZ comments (in brief)
- Clear softening
- Workers hard to find
- Finding skilled staff the biggest problem holding back firms (according to our Small Business Monitor)
- There is not a pool of suitable labour for most firms despite the unemployment rate being 4.8% ... That's a classic late-cycle challenge and signals pressure for wage growth to rise
More from ANZ:
Looking through the monthly noise, job ads growth has slowed to just 0.5% q/q. That moderation is reflected in annual job growth easing from a peak of 19.6% in January to 12.2% in July (3-month average). That's a turning point.