ANZ Truckometer July comes in at -5.5% m/m for the 'heavy' traffic index

  • The prior revised to -0.4%, from 0.0%

"Light' traffic index comes in at -2.2% m/m

ANZ citing 'dire' weather in July, but also saying that in the bigger picture economic momentum continues

ANZ's "KEY POINTS:"

  • The ANZ Truckometer indexes were weak in July, though looking through the monthly noise, continue to signal a strong economy.
  • The monthly fall in the Heavy Traffic Index was hefty, but likely reflects unusually dire weather over July. Two thirds of the fall was due to two South Island roads. Accordingly, we would not be surprised to see a bounce-back in August.
  • The upward trend in the Light Traffic Index continues, despite monthly volatility, suggesting solid activity over the remainder of the year.

NZD - little response

A Fire (and fury) truck

--

ANZ's Truckometer for New Zealand uses traffic volume data from around the country, reasoning "traffic flows are a real time and real-world proxy for economic activity - particularly for the New Zealand economy, where a large proportion of freight is moved by road."

  • Says it represents an extremely timely barometer of economic momentum
  • The Heavy Traffic Index is the 'headline', it shows a strong contemporaneous relationship to GDP
  • The Light Traffic Index has a six month lead on activity as measured by GDP