Official CPI data fro New Zealand comes once a quarter, today its for July to September
- expected 0.4% q/q, prior 0.0%
- expected 1.8%, prior 1.7%
Here are a couple (+1) of quickie previews via ...
HSBC:
We expect overall inflation to remain steady in y-o-y terms, just below the middle of the RBNZ's 1-3% target band. Food price inflation remains fairly strong, but the high NZD is likely to maintain downward pressure on the price of most imported goods, including clothing. Petrol prices were also slightly lower than in the previous quarter. Construction costs are expected to remain the only area of pronounced inflationary pressure.
TD Securities:
Food +1%/qtr; fuel prices fell -2.3%, implying -0.5%/qtr for private transport (both account for 28% of the index). Health and education tend to be highly seasonal and predictable, neither adding significantly to this quarter. Our forecast is higher than the RBNZ's 1.6%/yr (and our tracking for Q4 is also around 2%/yr) supporting our expectation for some hawkish noises from the Bank over the coming months.
Westpac:
We expect a 0.5% rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the September quarter, lifting the annual inflation rate to 1.9%. Food prices rose for the quarter, while fuel prices fell. The strong New Zealand dollar was a disinflationary force over the first half of this year, but we expect its influence to wane in the September quarter. We expect inflation to exceed the Reserve Bank's forecast for the quarter. However, with economic growth and house prices falling short of the RBNZ's forecasts, we think that interest rates will need to remain low for even longer than the market expects.
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If inflation surprises to the topside there should be a positive impact on the NZD, but I think WPAC are on the right path for the months ahead so any impact should be short-lived.
