By Kasra Kangarloo
WASHINGTON (MNI) – Another row of housing data and the next meeting
of the Federal Open Market Committee will be the primary economic news
next week.
Housing data will likely see greater relevance among next week’s
headlines following the surprise 15% surge in housing starts over the
month of September. The news came as a surprise to analysts and markets
alike, and could mark the official start of the real “housing market
recovery.”
The August FHFA house price index and the September new home sales
index will both be released Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. ET and September
pending home sales will be released Thursday at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Prices are another bright spot in the “real recovery” story, as the
market has finally started to show some traction due to a dwindling
supply of homes for sale.
The FOMC will also meet again next week, though there are likely to
be few fireworks following the significant change in policy at the last
meeting. The committee has now committed itself to an open-ended
purchase program contingent on the unemployment rate, and that’s
unlikely to change for now.
The FOMC statement will be released Wednesday at approximately 2:15
p.m. ET.
The advanced report for third quarter GDP, to be released Friday at
8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show growth of just under 2.0%. Even
meeting expectations would likely come as a relief to markets, after the
third estimate of the last quarter’s figure showed a surprisingly low
1.3% growth rate.
September durable goods orders, to be released Thursday at 8:30
a.m. ET, are expected to show modest gains in core figures, which
exclude transportation and defense. Headline orders are expected to
surge.
Manufacturing has lately hovered at an inflection point, with the
Institute for Supply Management’s monthly index, orders and exports all
pointing to a possible slowdown in the industry. It’s not yet
definitive, however, though higher gas prices could pose problems down
the line.
The University of Michigan will also release its final October
consumer sentiment report on Friday at 9:55 a.m. ET, and will be worth
watching after the surprise surge in the preliminary release.
Consumer confidence, along with sub-8.0% unemployment and better
housing data, have given the economic recovery some real teeth. The
question, as always, is whether consumption and further job gains will
follow.
Initial jobless claims are expected to return to a more stable
range of 370,000 after the wild swings in the last two weeks, which MNI
noted were due to some technicalities in state reporting.
Other data to be released over the week include the October Kansas
City Federal Reserve manufacturing activity index on Thursday at 11:00
a.m. ET, the October Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index on
Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, the October Chicago Federal Reserve national
activity index on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Markit preliminary
purchasing managers index for October on Wednesday at 8:58 a.m. ET, and
the Mortgage Bankers Association’s mortgage applications index on
Wednesday at 7:00 a.m. ET.
Federal Reserve speakers over the week will be limited in advance
of the FOMC meeting, though Cleveland Federal Reserve president Sandra
Pianalto will speak on payment systems in Chicago on Monday at 1:30 p.m.
ET.
— Kasra Kangarloo is a reporter for Need to Know News
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: M$$FI$,M$U$$$,MAUDS$]
