New Zealand Q2 CPI data due at 2245GMT and Reserve Bank of Australia july meeting minutes due at 0130GMT

These are the two big events here in Asia today (China June property prices too I guess, due at 0130GMT)

Before I get to the two-for-one preview, here's what I posted earlier on these:

New Zealand inflation data

RBA minutes previews:

OK, now this via Citi (from an overnight note, the 'today' they refer to is Monday):

  • NZD has been the biggest loser today and AUD has followed closely.
  • RBNZ Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said earlier "from a growth point of view, a lower exchange rate would help re-balance growth towards the tradables sector"
  • However, he also highlighted the exchange rate may be more sustainable than previously assumed, and in fact one of the models they use (the 'macro-balance' model) implies that the real exchange rate is already in equilibrium (defined as the level which stabilises net foreign liabilities to GDP).
  • Citi ... notes "We think this is a fairly meaningful shift in RBNZ rhetoric on the currency, and like selling AUDNZD here."
  • NZD gets its CPI data later at 23:45 BST. Citi Economics notes, "Following the strongest headline inflation print in over five years in Q1, we expect inflation to come in at a much more subdued rate of 0.1% in Q2. The yearly result would be 1.9%. The weaker print is most likely driven by the large fall in the transport component of the CPI and the recent strength in the NZD that pushed down tradable inflation."
  • For AUD, RBA meeting minutes get released at Tuesday 2:30 BST. Citi Economics' view on the RBA: "More positive signs on economic growth aren't enough to justify a more hawkish RBA.

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(ps. Twofer is two-for-one. I do prefer the BOGOF acronym though, buy-one-get-one-free)