David Rosenberg goes on a rant
David Rosenberg, who was famous as a bear at Merrill Lynch before-and-during the crisis, is in the headlines today as he castigates, well, everyone for getting excited about the huge gain in December Canadian jobs.
He directed his ire at economists who are taking the numbers at face value.
A "7,000 raw decline in employment translated into a seasonally adjusted 78,600 run-up," he wrote, noting that financial services were a big gainer but jobs in Ontario (where the industry is located) barely rose.
"And not just that, but, crazily this notion that the bank will go three times this year," Mr. Rosenberg said.
"Seriously?"
"Meanwhile, it looks like real GDP growth in Q4 is going to come in at nothing more than a 2-per-cent annual rate. So if you believe in those Statcan jobs data, productivity must be contracting at roughly a 1-per-cent annual rate. Go figure."
He hinted that now was a good time to buy USD/CAD due to the "wild overreaction".
I mean, the pair is down less than 80 pips since the data. If that's a wild overreaction then the VIX should be at zero.
More at the Globe & Mail.
