–2011 Demand Growth Forecast Now +1.2m b/d Vs +1.36m b/d Previous Est.
–Projects US Economy To Grow by 1.8% In 2011 Vs 2.5% Previous Estimate

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the second and final part of
excerpts from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report for August released
Tuesday:

Demand For OPEC Crude

Demand for OPEC crude in 2011 remained unchanged from the previous
assessment as both global demand and non-OPEC supply were revised down
by roughly the same amount. With the exception of 4Q11, which saw an
upward revision of 50 tb/d, all other quarters remained unchanged. At
30.0 mb/d, the demand for OPEC crude stood at 0.2 mb/d above 2010. The
first quarter showed growth of 0.6 mb/d, compared to the same period a
year ago, while the second remained unchanged. The third and fourth
quarters are estimated to see positive growth of 0.1 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d.

The demand for OPEC for 2012 is projected to average 30.2 mb/d,
down 0.1 mb/d from the previous report. Within the quarters, the first
and second quarter were revised down by 0.1 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d
respectively. The third and the fourth quarters were revised up by 0.1
mb/d from the previous assessment. Required OPEC crude in 2012 is
forecast to increase by 0.2 mb/d, compared to the current year. The
first quarter is estimated to see growth of 0.3 mb/d, followed by
negative growth of 0.2 mb/d in the second, while both the third and the
fourth quarter are forecast to see an increase of 0.4 mb/d, compared to
the same period in the previous year.

—

OPEC Crude Oil Production

Total OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.07 mb/d in July,
according to secondary sources, up 0.40 mb/d from the previous month.
Crude oil output experienced a considerable increase from Saudi Arabia,
Angola, and Kuwait while production fell in Libya, Iran, Nigeria, and
Iraq. According to secondary sources, OPEC crude production, not
including Iraq, stood at 27.39 mb/d in July, an increase of 0.43 mb/d
over the previous month.

—

Non-OPEC Supply

Non-OPEC supply in 2011 is expected to increase by 0.6 mb/d,
following a downward revision, mainly due to lower-than-expected supply
from Canada, Norway, UK, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Brazil, as well as
historical adjustments. In 2012, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow
by 0.7 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report, supported by projected
increases in Brazil, Canada, Colombia, and the US. OPEC NGLs and
non-conventional oils are projected to increase by 0.4 mb/d in 2011 and
2012, unchanged from the previous assessment. In July, total OPEC crude
oil output averaged 30.07 mb/d, according to secondary sources,
representing a gain of 0.40 mb/d over the previous month.

(2 of 2)

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MI$$$$,MI$OI$,M$$CR$,MAUDS$]