Here is what is coming up from China economic data today, Thursday 18 January 2018

I am a bit uncertain on timing ... it is China data after all and it can be a little flexible.

But from 0200 GMT, sometime after that, is usually about right

Q4 GDP

  • expected is +6.7% y/y
  • prior was +6.8% y/y
  • for the q/q, expected 1.7%, prior 1.7%
  • for the YTD y/y, expected 6.8%, prior 6.9%

December Industrial Production

  • expected is 6.1% y/y
  • prior was 6.1% y/y
  • For industrial production YTD y/y expected is 6.6%, prior was 6.6%

Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD y/y,

  • expected is 7.1%, prior was 7.2%

Retail Sales y/y,

  • expected is 10.2%
  • prior was 10.2%
  • For Retail Sales YTD y/y, expected is 10.3%, prior was 10.3%

Preview, this via Nomura:

  • We expect real GDP growth to slow to 6.6% y-o-y in Q4 2017 from 6.8% in Q3, as the cyclical slowdown unfolds.
  • That said, Premier Li Keqiang's comment of "around 6.9%" growth for full-year 2017 poses some upside risk to our forecast.
  • Weak industrial production growth is likely to remain low at 6.1% y-o-y in December, as anti-air pollution measures in the winter should weigh on production, while fixed asset investment and retail sales growth are likely to tick down, as the sharp fall in import growth in December points to weak local demand."