The second readout of Eurozone economic growth due today
Scheduled for release at 0900GMT
- expected 0.6% q/q & 2.1% y/y
- prior (1st reading) ... ditto 0.6 & 2.1
HSBC:
- The preliminary estimate of eurozone GDP growth for Q2 2017 was 0.6% q-o-q (2.1% y-o-y), in line with consensus expectations.
- Growth in Q1 2017 was revised down by 0.1pp to 0.5% but Q4 2016 nudged up from 0.5% to 0.6%, meaning the impact of the revisions on the level of GDP was small.
- The first release contained very little data beyond the headline number. So far, we have flash estimates for Q2 growth for France at 0.5% q-o-q and Spain at 0.9% q-o-q while flash estimates for Germany and Italy will be released on 15 and 16 August, respectively. Although we will not get the full components breakdown until the final release on 5 September, we expect household consumption to have maintained the pace of growth that it has kept up for the past year or so (around 0.4% q-o-q). We also expect investment and net trade to have contributed positively, the latter still driven by strong global demand and the euro depreciation in H2 2016. We expect the second reading to be unchanged at 0.6% q-o-q.
Barclays:
- We look for Q2 17 GDP to grow by 0.6% q/q, a slight acceleration from a now downward revised 0.5% q/q in Q1 17.
- We expect economic activity to have been broad based in terms of components, with domestic demand and net trade contributing almost equally to growth.
