Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy updates economy forecasts
- trade-weighted A$ has been in relatively narrow range for couple of years
- RBA repeats an appreciating A$ would dampen domestic growth and inflation
RBA quarterly statement trims near-term unemployment forecast, others largely unchanged
- will take some time to reach full employment, mid-point of 2-3 pct inflation band
- says underlying inflation to reach 2.25 pct by mid-2020
- underlying inflation seen at 1.75 pct end 2018, 2 pct end 2019, 2.25 pct june 2020
- gdp growth seen at 3.25 pct end 2018, 3.25 pct end 2019, 3 pct mid-2020
- unemployment forecasts cut 0.25 point to 5.25 pct out to mid-2019, stays at 5.25 pct to mid-2020
- expects employment to continue to expand, though not as rapidly as recently
- recent new enterprise agreements to put downward pressure on wage growth for couple of years
- says household income growth slow, if that persists it would constrain consumption
- household consumption looks to have recovered in q4, seen running a little above decade average
- outlook for business investment improved markedly, aided by infrastructure spending
- says curbs on bank lending has helped cool housing markets, household debt still high
- says outlook for global growth positive despite volatility in equity markets
Those quick headlines via Reuters
AUD not doing too much at all. Much of the tone of the Statement was converyed in RBA Lowe's speech overnight. ANZ didn't even wait for today's Statement, they revised their RBA outlook (for 2 hikes in 2018 to none) a few hours before this statement.
As I update the AUD/USD is a few tics lower from pre-release .... check out the data that was out at the same time, also on the soft side
more to come
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