TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s GDP contraction in the third quarter will be -0.9% on
quarter, or an annualized 3.4% fall, in revised data, little changed from the
preliminary estimate of a 0.9% drop (annualized -3.5%), with the fall in
business investment expected to be smaller than initially believed, according to
the median forecast of 25 economists surveyed by MNI.
The Cabinet Office will release revised (second preliminary) GDP data for
July-September at 0850 JST on Monday, Dec. 10 (2350 GMT Sunday).
The latest median forecast is slightly weaker than a 0.8% fall q/q
(annualized -3.3%) projected in the initial MNI survey of nine economists
published on Dec. 3.
The preliminary Q3 GDP data released last month showed that the economy
posted the first q/q contraction in three quarters after growing just 0.1%, or
an annualized 0.3% in Q2.
Economists based their forecasts on the results of a quarterly business
survey by the Ministry of Finance released on Dec. 3.
Capex will be revised up to -2.8% q/q from the preliminary reading of -3.2%
while and the positive contribution of private-sector inventories to GDP will be
unchanged at +0.2 percentage point, according to consensus among economists
polled by MNI.
The MOF survey showed that non-financial firm capex including software rose
2.2% y/y in Q3, showing the fourth straight quarterly rise after +7.7% in Q2.
Meanwhile, many economists said it is particularly difficult to forecast
revised GDP this time as the figures will also reflect revisions to GDP data for
fiscal 2011 and 2010. The Cabinet Office usually releases annual revisions to
the past two fiscal years in early December, separately from revisions to Q3 GDP
for the year.
–MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4818-1387; email: skodama@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MAJDS$,M$A$$$,M$J$$$]
