The risks for the USD into year-end - political

Via Commerzbank's daily note (out overnight)

The monetary policy side of things is unlikely to provide any momentum for the USD exchange rates until year-end

• Janet Yellen ... likely to be seen as a "lame duck" now
• Market participants ... interested in the monetary policy view of ... Powell
• However, so far his most conspicuous quality was his inconspicuousness

It would seem that over the remaining weeks of the year the risks for USD will be mainly of a political nature

• It is possible for example that Congress surprises positively and agrees on a tax reform before year-end
• Senators are expected to vote within the coming 10 days
• Following that representatives of the two houses will get together to consolidate the two bills
• In view of the massive differences that exist this is likely to turn into a mammoth task, but perhaps one should not underestimate the will of the Republicans who by now desperately need a legislative success.