Two major data releases due at the bottom of the hour

Here's what to watch at 1230 GMT (8:30 am ET) when US September CPI and retail sales numbers are due.

  1. Headline CPI. The year-over-year reading is expected to rise to 2.3% from 1.9%
  2. Core inflation. CPI ex food and energy is forecast to tick higher to 1.8% from 1.7%
  3. Real average weekly earnings. This one could steal the show. The prior reading was +1.0% y/y. The Fed wants to see higher wages before hiking
  4. Headline retail sales. Spending is forecast to rise 1.7% after a 0.2% slump a month earlier
  5. Control group. This measures retail sales ex-autos, gasoline and building materials. It's a good look at the core of the consumer and is forecast to rise 0.4% after a 0.2% decline in August.

The US dollar is at, or near, the highs of the day against the euro, yen and Canadian dollar. Yesterday's PPI numbers were on the hot side and that's giving the market a sense that CPI will be strong too.

USD/CAD is on the march.