Latest NIESR guesstimates on UK GDP just out 9 Feb
The GDP Estimate released by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research is an estimate of growth over the last 3 months up to the report which comes out a month before the official announcement.
Says Amit Kara, Head of UK Macroeconomic Forecasting at NIESR,
"We estimate that economic growth was steady at 0.5 per cent in the 3 months to January. Activity picked up in the second half of 2017 after a period of subdued growth in the first half of the year. The recovery was driven by both the manufacturing and the service sectors, supported by a buoyant global economy, while construction output continued to lag.
We are forecasting GDP growth of close to 2 per cent this year assuming a soft Brexit scenario. At this speed the economy could start to overheat unless the Bank of England withdraws some of the stimulus that it has injected by raising the policy rate. Our forecast assumes a 25-basis point increase in May and then every 6 months until Bank Rate reaches 2 per cent by mid-2021.
If instead, Brexit talks fail, the UK economy will in our view suffer a marked slowdown with damaging longer-term consequences."
Full report here
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Soggy pound prevailing as Barnier offers a Brexit reality check after yesterday's BOE-led rally.
