Ex auto and fuel MoM 0.1% versus 0.0% estimate

  • Retail sales including auto fuel MoM 0.3% vs 0.2% estimate. Small beat. Prior month revised 2-0.7% from -0.8%.
  • Retail sale ex auto fuel MoM 0.1% vs 0.0% estimate. Small beat. Prior month revised 2-0.6% from -0.7%
  • Retail sale including auto fuel YoY -0.3% vs -0.5% estimate. Prior month revised 2+1.3% from +1.2%.
  • Retail sales ex auto fuel YoY -0.3% vs -0.4% estimate. No revision
  • Three-month average soul sales growth pick up 0.9% from 0.7% in the three months to September. However compared to a year earlier, the three months to October were just 1.1% higher than the year before. This was the weakest growth rate since May 2013.

Underlying picture for retail sales is a steady growth, October 2017 suffers in comparison with a very strong October 2016.

The October retail sales deflator 3.1% year on year versus September 3 .3% year on year.. First fall in the rate since June.

The fall in the year on year is the first decline since 2013 Despite solid growth in volumes from September. Households are battling with fast rising prices.

The ONS said Octobers 0.3% year on year decline in sales volume was the biggest since March 2013 and reflected a very strong performance by retailers in October 2016.

Overall not bad but higher prices and bad comparison from last year impacting the YoY number.

The GBPUSD is a bit higher but remains within the bands from the earlier technical post (click here).