-Updates Version Transmitted Friday, Oct 19
London, Oct 22 (MNI) – The following are highlights of forecasts
for upcoming U.K. economic indicators and events.
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Wednesday, Oct 24
Prior Median
1000/0600 UK Oct CBI Industrial Trends
Monthly and Quarterly
1000/0600 UK Oct CBI Total Order Book (Monthly) -8 -7
The September CBI survey was fairly upbeat, showing a net 7% of
manufacturers expected to increase output over the next three months,
just above the long-run average of a net 6% and the total orders balance
of -8% was well above the long-run average of -17%.
With manufacturers optimistic about output, the October survey is
expected to come up with another robust set of results. With the
prices balance turning positive in September, however, the survey could
add to concerns over renewed inflationary pressure.
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Thursday, Oct 25
Prior Median
0830/0430 UK Q3 preliminary GDP
0830/0430 UK Q3 preliminary GDP (%q/q) -0.4 0.6
0830/0430 UK Q3 preliminary GDP (%y/y) -0.5 -0.4
0830/0430 UK Aug Index of Services (%m/m) 1.1 0.3
0830/0430 UK Aug Index of Services (%3m/3m) 0.1 n/a
Third quarter GDP is expected to show a sharp rebound from the
contraction in Q2. The Bank of England’s implied forecast in its August
Inflation Report was for some 0.9% growth on the quarter, but first
estimates of GDP tend to come in on the low side so a 0.8% print would
show the BOE prediction was pretty much spot on.
Analysts, however, are forecasting growth below this, with the
median forecast for only 0.6%, and even if the headline quarterly growth
outturn is stronger than this much, if not all, of the growth is likely
to be due to one-off effects.
The BOE Monetary Policy Committee assumes that the rebound from
Q2’s Diamond Jubilee bank holiday is likely to boost Q3 growth by some
0.5 percentage point while National Statistics has estimated Olympic
ticket sales, which are recorded as a service in Q3, will add 0.2
percentage point.
So an outturn of 0.7% growth on the quarter would only be
compatible with flat underlying growth.
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For further information contact David Robinson on 4420 7862 7491;
e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com.
[TOPICS: MABDS$,MTABLE]
