–Retransmitting Preview Published 11:43 ET Friday

By Chris Cermak

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Surveys of purchasing managers from around the
United States should indicate that national manufacturing was just
barely growing in September, despite a divide in the level of optimism
among regions of the country.

Economists have been bracing for a possible contraction in
manufacturing ever since regional indicators from the Federal Reserve
banks of New York and Philadelphia turned negative in June. The Richmond
Fed’s manufacturing report has signaled a contraction in its region
since July.

Yet the national Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing
report has remained barely positive, helped by growth in Chicago, one of
the nation’s key manufacturing regions, and in Dallas.

That trend likely played out again in the month of September. The
Philly Fed’s manufacturing came in at -17.5, the third negative reading
in four months. The Empire Fed’s index fell for the fourth straight
month to -8.8, though the regional New York ISM survey Friday climbed
just above its break-even rate to 50.6.

By contrast, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index Friday sharply
beat expectations, climbing nearly four points to 60.4 in September and
suggesting some businesses are still expecting to weather the broader
economic weakness. The Dallas Fed’s index also climbed to 5.9 in
September, up from 1.1 in August.

With September’s report, the Chicago PMI remains stronger than most
other parts of the country. Chicago-area executives speaking to MNI’s
Reality Check this week suggested uncertainty over the euro-area debt
crisis and U.S. fiscal disputes did weigh on business sentiment this
month, yet aerospace and automotive-related manufacturers in particular
were still reporting positive growth.

But the Chicago region could see stronger declines in future as the
automotive sector begins to fall in line with slackening demand in the
U.S. economy, according to Peter D’Antonio, an economist with Citigroup.
Durable goods figures out Wednesday indicated new orders in the auto
sector fell 8.5% in August.

“More than likely, what we’re going to see is the Chicago number
move towards the national average,” D’Antonio told Market News
International ahead of the Chicago release.

With the regional indicators mixed again for this month, the
national ISM manufacturing index is forecast to hold in positive
territory at 50.5 when it is released Monday, according to an MNI survey
of economists. That would be down ever so slightly from a reading of
50.6 the previous month.

Chad Moutray, chief economist with the National Association of
Manufacturers, acknowledged there was “a little bit more of a
pessimistic attitude” among manufacturers in the east and north-east of
the country than in the Midwest.

Both the U.S. and European political problems were dampening the
outlook for manufacturers, Moutray said. But many manufacturers “are
looking beyond those hurdles” and the sector was unlikely to slip into
recession nationally.

“The overall picture for manufacturing is good going forward,” he
said.

The national Purchasing Manager’s Index held above 50 despite
negative readings for many of its key components in the last month,
including new orders, order backlogs and production. Supplier deliveries
held positive at 50.6.

Moutray said he expects new orders to remain negative for another
month or two, but “as we get closer to the end of the year you’ll see
new orders pick up.”

Other manufacturing indicators have been relatively stagnant,
mirroring the sluggish growth and weak employment in the wider U.S.
economy.

Durable goods have been trading losses and gains for months. New
orders slid 0.1% in August, with durables ex-transport also down 0.1%,
the first monthly drop since April. Yet core capital goods orders
(ex-defense and ex-aircraft) rose 1.1%, the most in three months, and
core shipments rose 2.8%, prompting some economists to revise their
expectations slightly upward for third quarter GDP growth.

Industrial production for August edged up 0.2%, according to the
Federal Reserve, down from a 0.9% gain in July.

— Chris Cermak is a Washington reporter for Need to Know News.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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