By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The latest polling on the U.S. presidential race
shows very little if any substantial gains for President Barack Obama,
despite his strong debate performance last week against Republican
challenger Mitt Romney.

Even worse for the president, Romney seems to hold a net advantage
in national polls, though the race is still too close to call.

The latest NBC/WSJ poll shows a dead-heat, with each candidate tied
at 47%, though among registered voters within the same poll Obama holds
a five-point lead.

Public Policy Polling also shows a dead-heat at 48%, while the
latest POLITICO/GWU poll shows a three-point swing in the Republican’s
favor, with Romney at 49%.

Gallup’s poll of likely voters, while very likely an outlier, still
shows a whopping seven-point lead for Romney, while the company’s poll
of registered voters gives him a three-point lead.

IBD/TIPP’s online poll and the Washington Times’ latest figures,
however, give Obama a sizable national advantage, offsetting what
appears to be continued movement in favor of the challenger.

If national polls have shown a steadily growing — albeit still
small — advantage for Romney, polls of the battleground states show a
much clearer picture — with Obama holding a commanding lead.

Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and Nevada have remained in Obama territory,
largely unmoved by Romney’s performance in the first presidential debate
and giving the president a distinct advantage in winning the electoral
college.

Romney was able to make sizable gains in battlegrounds such as
Florida and North Carolina, and has been able to move Virginia into
toss-up territory. However, even with an growing lead in national polls,
the challenger’s road to victory remains a difficult one, particularly
without Ohio.

Poll results compiled by MNI from the organizations beginning 7/1.

Results as of: October 17, 2012
Margin
Survey Sample of
Dates Organization Obama Chg Romney Chg Size Error

7-day rolling Gallup Tracking 46% -1 49% +1 1387 RV 3.0%
45% 0 52% 0 2700 LV 2.0%
3-day rolling Rasmussen Tracking 47% 0 49% 0 1500 LV 3.0%
10/17-10/20 NBC/WSJ 47% -2 47% +1 816 LV 3.4%
10/19-10/21 Public Policy Polling 48% -1 48% +1 1200 LV 2.8%
10/18-10/20 Wash. Times/JZ Analytics 50% 47% 800 LV 3.5%
10/16-10/20 Reuters/Ipsos 46% -1 45% +1 1491 RV 2.9%
10/15-10/20 IBD/TIPP 48% +2 42% -4 938 LV 3.5%
10/11-10/21 POLITICO/GWU 47% -2 49% +1 1000 LV 3.1%

10/13-10/15 YouGov/Economist 47% -2 46% +1 826 LV 3.5%

10/10-10/13 ABC News/Wash. Post 49% 0 46% -1 923 LV 3.5%
10/12-10/13 Newsmax/Zogby 47% -2 44% +3 863 LV 3.4%

10/08-10/10 Monmouth U. 46% -2 47% +6 1571 LV 2.5%
10/09-10/09 Fox News 45% -3 46% +2 1092 LV 3.0%

10/04-10/07 Pew Research 45% -6 49% +6 1112 LV 3.4%

9/26-9/30 NPR 51% 44% 800 LV 4.0%
9/28-9/30 CNN/ORC 50% +2 47% -1 783 LV 3.5%
9/27-9/30 National Journal 47% 47% LV 4.5%
9/25-9/30 Quinnipiac 49% +3 45% +2 1912 LV 2.2%

9/21-9/24 Bloomberg 49% 43% 789 LV 3.5%

9/08-9/12 CBS/New York Times 49% 46% 1162 LV 3.0%
9/08-9/12 Democracy Corps 50% 45% 1000 LV 3.1%

8/16-8/19 Daily Kos/SEIU 49% +2 45% 0 1000 RV 3.1%
8/15-8/16 Angus Reid 45% -2 49% +2 1007 LV 3.1%

8/03-8/10 IBD/CSM/TIPP 46% 39% 828 RV 3.5%

7/09-7/12 D.C./R.R./NPR 47% 45% 1000 LV 3.1%
7/09-7/11 McClatchy/Marist 48% 46% 849 RV 3.5%

RV = Registered voters
LV = Likely voters
G = General population
Chg = Change from previous poll. Change for rolling polls from one week prior.

** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **

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